I’ve said most of what I’m going to say on Aaron Rodgers, with Packers veterans set to report to Lambeau in less than 24 hours. But one thing I’d add here that I think is important: If Green Bay were to lop years off Rodgers’s contract—as has been suggested—promise not to tag him, and give him the kind of freeway to free agency Tom Brady got in the summer of 2019, the team would be doing a more for Rodgers than the Patriots did for Brady back then.
Brady was going into the final year of his deal. Rodgers isn’t; he has three years left. And Brady landing the no-tag provision was part of the Kraft family’s standing promise that Brady had earned the right to finish his career as he liked. Conversely, the Packers, in doing this, would be erasing two years from a deal Rodgers signed that had a $57.5 million signing bonus, agreeing to take on over $17 million in dead money in 2022, and losing their ability to leverage, potentially, three or four first-round picks out of someone else in a trade for Rodgers.
The ceiling for the return then, because Rodgers is over 30 and has accrued more than 10 years in the league, would be set at a fifth-round comp pick. This is just me, but I wouldn’t agree to do that if I were the Packers.
What would make more sense would be lopping 2023 off the deal and giving Rodgers a no-tag provision. That puts the Packers in a spot where they’d have to deal him after this year if they want any sort of return—but still protect his trade value—and also the chance to give him a massive new contract if things improve. Throwing a no-trade clause in there would allow Rodgers to dictate his destination.
