Now that the NFL season has passed the halfway point, perhaps this is a good time for reflection.
This is my first season doing this weekly NFL betting column, which was initially overwhelming because I didn’t want to give bad advice. Sports bettors already get enough bad advice since the industry exploded a few years ago. Everyone is a so-called expert and has best bets to offer—for a price.
But the best decision I made was talking to the Las Vegas oddsmakers and the actual sports betting experts—the ones not afraid to share their losses. (Floyd Mayweather Jr. is undefeated in the ring and apparently as a sports bettor, too. He’s never shared a losing bet on social media.)
Thanks to the professionals in the sports betting industry being gracious with their time, I was able to share their insight with this column over the past nine weeks. They’ve also made me better because habits are hard to break when betting on the NFL.
Doug Kezirian, the former host, was nice enough to remind me that not every underdog is worth our time. That’s my bad habit. Many like to favor the heavy favorites. Not me. I get a thrill from picking the right moneyline dogs.
Kezirian, who’s now doing great things with Only Players, a multi-platform gambling media network, played along when I told him maybe the Carolina Panthers getting 6.5 points in Germany against the New York Giants could be a good play this week. Obviously, I had to brag about picking the Panthers last week when they handed the New Orleans Saints their seventh consecutive loss.
But then Kezirian reminded me that they’re still the Panthers.
“The Panthers don’t do the things that would disrupt the Giants, like they don’t get after the quarterback,” says Kezirian, a sports betting expert and analyst for Only Players. “Daniel Jones will have his way and [Malik] Nabers could have a field day. This Panthers team is really weak. They should have been blown out last week. They were catching seven points at home to a Saints team that had lost six straight.
“I understand the line the more I think about it. I want no part of Carolina and I don’t want to wake up [early] and watch the game either.”
That was just one of six games this week (as of late Wednesday) with the favorite laying at least six points. There could be opportunities to back an underdog against the spread. Maybe the Denver Broncos (+8) on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, who love to make it close against lower competition. But it’s better to stay away after Denver’s 31-point loss against the Baltimore Ravens last week.
As a reminder to myself, it’s O.K. to take heavy favorites now and then. Kezirian likes the Philadelphia Eagles to cover as -7 road favorites against Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys.
“I would say of all the big point spreads, I would lay it with Philly,” Kezirian says. “I think the Cowboys, and it’s not just [being without Dak Prescott], they can’t run the ball, and if [CeeDee] Lamb is banged up and still no Micah Parsons, they might be missing some serious guys. I think [coach Mike] McCarthy is on the hot seat. I got burned laying it with Philly last week [vs. the Jaguars], so I’m not in a rush to bet Philly, but I do think that game can be a blowout.
“I don’t think teams respect the Cowboys. We’ve seen them get crushed in some games, like last week they really didn’t belong on the field [against the Atlanta Falcons].”
The Cincinnati Bengals might get some love as +6 road underdogs against the Ravens for their clash. The Ravens have lost to the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders, a team the Bengals crushed last week. Also, the Bengals blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead against the Ravens earlier this season and ended up losing 41–38 in overtime.
But perhaps it’s better to avoid this game because the Ravens might have an advantage as the home team on a short week. Kezirian mentioned the short rest has affected the road teams during the first two months of the season. The Minnesota Vikings lost on the road to the Los Angeles Rams two weeks ago. And the Houston Texans had a flat road performance against the New York Jets last Thursday.
Taking the over on Bengals vs. Ravens with a total line of 53 might be one of the safest bets of the week. Kezirian’s favorite bet this week is taking the Washington Commanders on their team total of 23.5 for Sunday’s battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Kezirian likes to look under every rock when it comes to searching for advantages with NFL bets. It’s not just about underdogs and favorites. It’s O.K. to pass on a game or take a shot with the total line. Do yourself a favor and check out what Kezirian is doing over at Only Players.
Manzano’s NFL Week 10 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: 49ers (-6) at Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers covered as nine-point underdogs in Kansas City on Monday night. Some might be enticed to take them again as underdogs because they’re getting +6 points at home against the San Francisco 49ers, who have struggled this season.
But don’t fall for the trap. The 49ers are coming off a bye week and could have running back Christian McCaffrey for the first time this season. The Chiefs probably overlooked the Buccaneers on Monday night. The 49ers won’t do that because they need this game to keep pace with the teams in the NFC West.
Enticing Bet: Patriots (+6) at Bears
I’m taking a chance with this one because there’s not much to like about the New England Patriots outside of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. But it’s worth the risk because of the dark cloud hanging over the Chicago Bears, who haven’t done much right during this two-game losing streak against the Commanders and Arizona Cardinals.
I couldn’t convince Kezirian to join me on this Patriots bet, but he did say he likes the over with the total line at 38.5 points. The oddsmakers might have forgotten that Jacoby Brissett is no longer the starting quarterback for the Patriots.
Moneyline Dog: Colts (+170) vs. Bills
Honestly, I had a hard time picking a moneyline dog this week. I’m not confident with this one, but maybe the Buffalo Bills get caught looking ahead to next week’s showdown against the Chiefs. This could be the classic trap game. Joe Flacco could have more success this week now that he’s not playing against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Not So Risky: Falcons (-3.5) at Saints
This line is a little strange because you’d think the Atlanta Falcons would be favored by more points against a team that has a seven-game losing streak and just fired coach Dennis Allen. I guess we shouldn’t overlook the bump teams generally get during the first game with an interim coach. But the Jets didn’t cover when they fell to the Bills in their first game after firing Robert Saleh.
I’ll bet on Kirk Cousins here against a poor defense that got worse after trading cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders.
Stay Away: Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Broncos
There’s no way I’m betting on Bo Nix and the Broncos against an AFC contender after the dud they delivered against the Ravens last week. But this line is too big for me to favor the Chiefs, who couldn’t cover against the Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders as heavy favorites. Avoid this game at all costs. It’s tough knowing which Chiefs squad will show up.
Parlay: Vikings (-4) at Jaguars; Texans (+3.5) vs. Lions; Rams (-1) vs. Dolphins
The Rams are much better at home, with wins against the Vikings and 49ers. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence might throw a pick-six against the Vikings’ defense. And I’m taking a chance with the Texans, but all signs point toward a Nico Collins return this week.
Survivor Pool: Chargers (-355) vs. Titans
The Los Angeles Chargers’ defense is the real deal. They’re allowing a league-best 12.6 points per game. The Titans’ offense could have a long day in Los Angeles, regardless of which quarterback starts.
Best Over/Under Total: Jets-Cardinals (over 46, -112)
Kezirian is expecting a shootout in Arizona with these two teams. Aaron Rodgers finally has a rhythm with stud wideouts Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has to deal with Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. But Kyler Murray has plenty of options to score points against New York’s defense.
“The Jets are not afraid to throw it around,” Kezirian says. “I think on that fast track we see some points in that game.”
