Thursday’s NBA action features just five games, but there are some intriguing matchups with the Milwaukee Bucks hosting the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves.
After Luka Doncic played in his first game against his former team – the Dallas Mavericks – on Tuesday, he’s one of the players that I’m eyeing in the prop market once again on Thursday.
Plus, the Golden State Warriors have won six of their first seven games with Jimmy Butler on the roster, and they could be worth a bet as road favorites against the Orlando Magic.
Here’s a full breakdown of my four NBA plays on Feb. 27.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 164-155-4 (+2.49 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1174-1100-26 (+40.58 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Golden State Warriors -5 (-115) vs. Orlando MagicJamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-115)Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)Mark Williams OVER 13.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unitGolden State Warriors -5 (-115) vs. Orlando Magic
This game immediately jumped off the board to me as an easy pick with the Magic still struggling mightily to get anything going on offense.
Orlando ranks 28th in offensive rating over its last 10 games, and the Warriors are rolling with Butler on the roster, winning six of their last seven games while posting the No. 2 net rating in the NBA over that stretch.
Golden State has blown out Sacramento, Dallas and Charlotte since the All-Star break, and I’m not buying this Orlando team after it lost by 40 to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday night. Without Jalen Suggs this season, the Magic are just 9-16 straight up.
Plus, they’ve slipped to 3-5-1 against the spread as home underdogs – one of the worst marks in the NBA this season.
This is a shorter spread than I expected for a Golden State team that is making a serious push for a top-six seed in the conference.
I’ll gladly lay the points with the Warriors on Thursday.
Jamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-115)
No team in the NBA has allowed more points per game to the point guard position than the Bucks (26.0 points per game), putting Jamal Murray in a great spot for Denver on Thursday night.
Murray is coming off a pair of down scoring games (19 and 16 points in his last two appearances), but he’s still averaging 21.1 points per game for the season. It’s also worth noting that the Nuggets star has shot the lights out from 3 recently, hitting four or more shots from beyond the arc in four straight games while shooting 60.0 percent from deep over that stretch.
He should take advantage of a weak Milwaukee defense against the guard position, especially since the Bucks rank 21st in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season.
Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
With Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert out for Minnesota, the Wolves aren’t nearly as tough to deal with on the glass, which should set up well for Doncic on Thursday night.
The newly-acquired Lakers star is averaging 12.0 rebounds per game over his last three games (since his minutes limit was lifted), picking up at least 10 boards in every game. With the Lakers opting to play small at times since moving on from Anthony Davis, Doncic and LeBron James are going to be asked to do some heavy lifting on the glass. I love the All-NBA guard in this prop market on Thursday night.
Mark Williams OVER 13.5 Points (+100) – 0.5 unit
You’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup right now for Charlotte Hornets big man Mark Williams with the Dallas Mavericks down their top-three centers in Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II on Thursday night.
Williams had a 12-point, 12-rebound double-double in his last game (you can bet him at -130 to record another one), but I really like his points prop on Thursday.
Dallas ranks 24th in opponent points per game in the paint this season, and over its last 10 games, it ranks dead last, allowing over 57 points per game in the paint. The lack of rim protection is a huge issue for Dallas, and Williams should have no problem with Dwight Powell down low.
Williams is averaging 15.0 points per game for the season, but I’m only playing a half-unit for this bet because Williams’ minutes have been down as of late since Charlotte keeps getting blown out.
